Post by Matt Ravis | @MattRavis on X
Welcome to fantasy football. As of 2023, more than 29 millions Americans play. Once the refuge of the most devoted sports types, now your dad, your grandpa, your friends, coworkers — EVERYBODY has a little skin in the game.
On the line? Just your pride and your cash. Allow me to help you retain as much of those two as possible.
TIP 1:
You can’t win at your draft, but you can lose.
One of the biggest mistakes I see people making, especially novices, is to lock themselves into a certain way of drafting before the actual time comes. Sure, mock drafts are helpful, but you never know which player (or players) in your league will send it zigging. It’s your job to find the zag.
So, do some draft prep, but not *too* much. It’s helpful to know values of players relative to where they’re being drafted. But it’s damaging to have tunnel vision, and only allow yourself a few options.
Remember this: early rounds are important, but mid-to-late rounds win leagues. Don’t be afraid to take a risk an a relatively unknown young player with upside, as opposed to the known quantity veteran with a limited ceiling.
So what does this all mean for you? Bring two important things along with you: a handy printed sheet of draft rankings (like you can find at FantasyPros), and an open mind. The draft sheet will help you understand where you’re finding values. The open mind will direct you towards players you didn’t envision getting. Use your gut feeling, but balance that with the expert rankings, and you will be a step ahead of your league.
One more thing: waivers are as important as the draft. You can nail your picks and have bad injury luck. If you hustle on waivers, you’re likely ahead of half of your league.
TIP 2:
This is like playing poker, but also the stock market, too
This tip helps me remove the emotion from the game. Luck is a factor that we will always acknowledge when it works against us, and rarely when it works for us. But it is inevitably a force, whether we think so or not.
“Trust the process” is my credo. I am constantly searching to put myself in the best possible position to win. But, just like poker, you can have a great hand and lose. You can have a poor hand and win, though! Playing the probabilities smartly is the best path to success. If it doesn’t work out? Oh well, you’ll win with intelligence and a bit of luck in the long run.
The stock market aspect of fantasy has to do with value. The old adage, “buy low, sell high” applies. Understand that worse football players will go ahead of better football players because of their name, or maybe where they played in college (more on that in the next tip). This means you can capitalize with clever trades after blowup weeks, or acquire a season-winning player because of a few down weeks.
Finally, don’t tilt! Most lose in fantasy football. You will inevitably. Just remember that a good deal of this is out of your hands, and if you can, extract some lessons to improve yourself moving forward.
Be smart, play the values, and above all: Trust The Process.
TIP 3
Know thyself, know thy league
This is a simple one. Is your league a standard league? PPR? Half-point? One QB or two? Superflex? TE premium?
What about waivers? Priority, rolling, FAAB? When is the trade deadline?
These are just a few of the different popular ways fantasy leagues are set up. If you needed a glossary for these terms: first of all, congrats on being normal. Second of all, it’s worth brushing up and checking your league settings.
Another facet of this: who are you playing with? Chiefs, Cowboys fans? Oklahoma, Oklahoma State fans? Their own fandom and biases will affect the players they want and like, and often will draft ahead of their normal spots. You can take advantage of this.
Know your league, know your league-mates.
TIP 4
Help! I need somebody.
Since you’re already this far into the article, I imagine this tip won’t be much of an issue: It’s okay to lean on other people and resources for your fantasy leagues.
I actually used to think this was taboo. Maybe it was my pride, but I never used rankings, opting to use my own intuition. It didn’t go great for me.
That’s not to say to never trust your instincts! You should use them, but tempered against what experts and analysts say. Remember, these peoples’ entire JOBS is to watch and digest as much football as possible. They will not be 100% right, but for the most part, it’s smart to heed their advice.
FantasyPros, as mentioned earlier, is my best bet for rankings. They aggregate many credible fantasy experts, so you’re getting a holistic look.
That said, if your gut is screaming “DON’T DRAFT THIS PLAYER,” even thought the rankings are indicating the opposite — this isn’t bad. In my experience, when I draft players I don’t want to, it’s a bad experience. Especially if they bust. Your gut is not foolproof, but it can be valuable.
Ultimately, this is about balance. Use your gut, but you don’t know what you don’t know. The experts can be a way of checking your blind spots.
TIP 5
“My mama always said, ‘Life was like a box of chocolates. You never know what you’re gonna get.’”
This is the most important tip I can give, and the one I always have to remind myself of. It’s also the hardest to implement:
YOU HAVE TO BE FLUID.
This applies any stage: the draft, the season itself, waivers, your lineups, trades — everything. If you’re stuck in an old mode, you’re likely to get passed by. At some point in the season, and the earlier the better, you have to burn your assumptions of what you believed.
We spend all summer and even a few weeks into the year believing what we think is true, is true. But if you don’t adjust and adapt to what you see, you could get left behind.
Although your instincts do matter, as we’ve discussed, it’s important to realize they can easily lead you astray.
Bottom line: if you maintain an emotional detachment from your team and your players, and only care about the ultimate goal (winning), you’ll likely be fine. If you get attached and stuck, you could be left behind.
BONUS TIP!
Easy one. Wait until the final two or three rounds to draft your kicker and your defense. Waiting on QB isn’t a bad thing either. It’s led to many a championship for me. When everyone runs out of RBs and WRs because they drafted defense in the 8th round, you’ll be running them over.