By: Michael Doutey
Game One of the Thunder-Jazz opening round series gets underway today at 5:30 p.m. inside the Chesapeake Energy Arena. The last times these division foes faced off was on December 23rd in Salt Lake City, a game the Thunder won 103-89. The Thunder won three of the four games between the two teams, and the Thunder are 6-2 in the last two seasons against the Jazz. However, Rudy Gobert, the Jazz’s menacing 7-foot-1 center with an 8-foot wingspan, missed two of the four games. In the third matchup of the season, sensational rookie Donovan Mitchell missed the game along with Rudy Gobert.
So, the Thunder’s 3-1 season record against the Jazz is a little misleading. Also in all that, Andre Roberson played in all four games. Obviously Roberson will not be apart of this playoff run. But the Jazz have made a few moves that make them looks a little different since the Thunder last saw them. The Jazz traded away Rodney Hood in exchange for Jae Crowder at the trade deadline. Utah also released Joe Johnson, who is now with Houston. The Jazz also have back Dante Exum, the 6-foot-6 athletic point guard, who missed the majority of the season after having shoulder surgery. The Jazz also lost Thabo Sefolosha for the season due to a knee injury.
What to Watch For
- Steven Adams and Rudy Gobert
This might be the one-on-one matchup to watch all series long. Both are the anchors of the their teams defense. Gobert is a probably the NBA’s Defensive Player of the Year. That is how important he is to what the Jazz do. Gobert averages 2.3 blocks per game and he alters many others. We know that the Thunder like to drive the basketball and score at the rim. So, it is going to be imperative for OKC to find ways to get Gobert out of the paint. Adams is a great screener, so I’d expect lots of high-screen-and-rolls between Steven and Russell Westbrook. Adams is key because he can also get Gobert in foul trouble. Steven Adams averages 5.1 offensive rebounds per game and Gobert grabs 7.8 defensive rebounds per game. Those two will battle all over the floor, but this is a key area for OKC. If Adams can continue to offensive rebound like a mad man, that means OKC will get extra possessions to score on the NBA’s best defense and it could force Gobert into foul trouble. In the first game these two teams played, Gobert dominated, scoring 16 points on 8-11 shooting and grabbed 13 rebounds. Meanwhile, Adams had nine points on 3-6 shooting and just five rebounds and OKC lost 96-87. In the last game Gobert played against OKC, Adams scored 20 points on 9-10 shooting and had nine rebounds, six of which were on the offensive glass. Gobert scored just five points on 1-2 shooting and had just six rebounds as OKC went on to win 100-94. I’d be willing to bet that whichever team wins today will be because either Adams or Gobert won this individual matchup.
2. Paul George on Donovan Mitchell
At practice Saturday afternoon in OKC, PG talked about his role in the playoffs, insinuating that he will guard the other teams best scorer. “Yeah, I’m used to it. You ain’t met playoff P yet,” George joked after being asked if he will guard Mitchell or not. “I’m used to the matchups. I’m used to playing against the best offensive guy during these moments. That will definitely be my role, especially late in games.” Mitchell is the key to the Jazz offense. Mitchell averages a team high 20.5 points per game, 3.7 assists per game, 2.7 turnovers per game on 43.7 percent shooting and 34 percent shooting from beyond the arc. But it will be key to make Mitchell uncomfortable and try and force him into turnovers. OKC leads the league in forcing 15.1 turnovers per game, while Utah averages 14.1 turnovers per game, which is in the bottom half of the league. I think it’s key for OKC to frustrate Mitchell from scoring and then force him into turnovers so OKC can score in the fast break.
3. The Battle of Role Players
As we learned last season, it is key for OKC to have their role players play well when Westbrook, PG, Melo and Adams aren’t on the floor. That mean guys like Raymond Felton, Jerami Grant, Corey Brewer (if he plays), Alex Abrines (if he plays), and Patrick Patterson all have to play well to give OKC a chance to win. That also means not allowing Joe Ingles, Jae Crowder, Alec Burks and Jonas Jerebko to play well. If OKC can win the battle of the role players then I think the Thunder will win this game.
Injury Report for OKC
Corey Brewer is looking good, according to Shams Charania of The Vertical.
Sources: OKC starter Corey Brewer (sprained right knee) remains on track to play in Game 1 today against the Jazz. https://t.co/ilYBxtQmPM
— Shams Charania (@ShamsCharania) April 15, 2018
Also, Alex Abrines was still in the concussion protocol yesterday, per Billy Donovan. But Donovan said he did a little more in practice than the day before. Expect an announcement from Billy Donovan about an hour before tip on both their availabilities.
Prediction
Yesterday, I picked the Thunder to win in six. Today, I think the Thunder set the tone not only for the series, but for the playoffs. I’m picking OKC in game one 99-93.
