By Michael Doutey

The 24th ranked Oklahoma State Cowboys host the 17th ranked Broncos of Boise State at 2:30 inside Boone Pickens Stadium Saturday afternoon. A win for OSU would be an enormous confidence booster and would be staring a possible 9-0 start right in the face. For Boise State, a win would put them in perfect position for an undefeated season and possibly becoming the first Group of Five team to crash the college football playoff.

The last big non-conference game that Oklahoma State hosted was against Georgia in 2009 when the new and improved BPS was unveiled for the world to see. Interestingly enough, the last big non-conference regular season win from Boise State was against Georgia in 2011.

Both teams come into today’s game with tons to gain. For OSU, a loss isn’t crushing but is creates more questions and disappointment after they lost three big home games a season ago. Boise State is a very good team. But OSU could start 8-1 and could still find a way into the Big 12 Title race if they can upset either West Virginia, at TCU or at Oklahoma.  A loss today would puncture the hope of the fan base. But a win would send a message to the fans and the Big 12 conference as well as be a huge confidence boost for the team. 

A loss for Boise would be crushing. Coming from the Mountain West Conference, they won’t face another game like this the rest of the season. Today is Boise State’s Super Bowl. This is their one and only chance of the season to show the country that they are Final Four material.

Regardless, this is shaping up to be a massive game and one of the most competitive of the day.

Get to Know the Opponent

Boise State uses a multiple offense. You’ll see them under center with two tight ends one play and the next they’ll be four wide in the spread and shotgun. They use tons of motion and have lots of movement pre-snap to try to get the defense off balanced. Boise State likes to play the numbers game and attack opposing defenses where they have weak spots and fewer numbers. OSU will have to be disciplined getting lined up and have great communication when Boise starts motioning and moving before the snap.

Brett Rypien is playing in his 40th game of his career today. He’s thrown for 10,543 yards, 67 touchdowns and 22 interceptions in his career. This season he has thrown for 667 yards, seven touchdowns and no interceptions while completing 73.2 percent of his passes. He is a really solid quarterback. He is a pocket quarterback and doesn’t run much. Rypien has been sacked just once this season.

Boise State’s rushing attack through two games ranks 29th in the country. They rush on average for 255.5 yards per game. Their attack is lead by junior running back, Alexander Mattison. The 5-foot-11, 211 pound back has rushed for 171 yards on an average of 6.8 yards per carry. He also has three rushing touchdowns. However, Boise does use fly sweeps with their receivers like South Alabama did a week ago. OSU struggled with that in the first half but got it corrected in the second half. 

Boise State’s receivers were supposed to be a work in progress after they lost their top guy from a season ago. They are also replacing last seasons two top tight ends. But they, like OSU, have figured that out. Three guys have over 100 yard receiving games. Sean Modster is a guy to watch out for. He has 13 catches for 241 yards and two touchdowns to lead the Broncos. John Hightower is next with seven catches for 134 yards and a TD. AJ Richardson has six catches for 130 yards and a TD. CT Thomas has five catches for 96 yards and a TD. Hightower is the tallest of the bunch, standing at 6-foot-2, but he only weighs in at 185 pounds. The rest of their receiving core is six-foot or under. They are all smaller but very quick. It also looks like Boise will be getting sophomore Octavius Evans back. He missed the first two games and was expected to be the guy this season. He is a bigger receiver at six-foot-one, 200 pounds. 

The Boise State offensive line is a really good one. They return several starters and, like I mentioned above, they’ve given up only one sack this season. As a team, the Broncos are averaging 6.9 yards per rush this season.

The Boise State defense is similar to TCU’s in strategy. According to Pat Jones, they aren’t as fast or athletic as TCU is, but they are well coached and the fly around. They are good at forcing turnovers, which has been an issue for the OSU offense through two weeks. Boise State has forced two interceptions this season while they have already forced three fumbles. The Broncos have a literal “Turnover Throne” a player sits on after forcing a turnover. They are solid up front, but they are very experienced in the secondary. The Broncos return 10 starters from their defense last season. They only guy who left was Leighton Vander Esch, who was a first round draft pick by Dallas. 

Keys to the Game for OSU

 

1. Get Justice Hill loose.

OSU must be able to run the football to win today. If they can’t this game could get away from OSU. The Cowboys have the best player on the field today in Justice Hill. He’s been held to just 19 rushes this season and two catches, a total of 21 touches through two games. I’d expect Hill to have 25 or more touches by days end. If OSU can get him to 150 rushing yards, they win this game.

2. Win the turnover battle.

Taylor Cornelius has thrown three picks so far this season. The two in the endzone have been awful. He must not be a turnover today. OSU can’t afford to give away extra possessions to this Boise team. They will make you pay. If the OSU defense can force a couple turnovers and keep Corn from throwing interceptions or the team from fumbling, then OSU will be in good shape.

3. Pressure Brett Rypien.

The Pokes have the edge speed to really wreak havoc with Calvin Bundage and Jordan Brailford. Rypien isn’t a guy who is real mobile. He is a pocket passer who hasn’t faced pressure. If the Pokes can generate a pass rush and force him to throw the ball before he wants to, that will not only help the secondary, who has yet to be challenged, but they could end up with some interceptions. Jim Knowles loves to get after the quarterback and Brailford and Bundage provide a speed problem the Broncos aren’t used to seeing.

4. Stop the Broncos run.

If OSU can force Boise State into being one dimensional, then the Pokes will be in excellent shape. If OSU can take away the run game and force Boise State into third and long, then OSU will be sitting pretty to get a W.

Prediction

Don’t count the Cowboys out of this one. I know who has the more experienced team and the more experienced quarterback. But Mike Gundy’s best jobs have always been when people begin to doubt his team. OSU has the best player on the field in Justice Hill and I think we’ll see a Heisman worthy performance from Hill to lead OSU to a 38-31 win over Boise State.